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The Fragmentation of Society Thoughts from the Frontline Investment Newsletter. The Fragmentation of Society.

The Future of Work. The End of Cancer. Angst in America. Denver, Lugano, and Hong Kong. Lately, my life has been completely packed with speeches, meetings, and in- depth, often lengthy, conversations. Plus ongoing research and writing, of course. It all culminated Thursday afternoon at the beginning of a business meeting with the leadership team from a firm that will become a significant new business partner.

At the very beginning of the meeting, the head of the firm leaned over to me and asked, “What’s on the top of your mind? What are you thinking about?” The previous night we had a small group of about 1. What keeps you up at night?”It has become an emotional question for me, because the answer does not come easily, is complex, and can be more than a little unsettling. It is, however, evolving out of the research and writing I’m doing on my new book, The Age of Transformation. Whether audiences and readers agree with my answer or not, it is not a feel- good message, which is somewhat frustrating because I’m the biggest long- term optimist in the room. But I acknowledge that what I am talking about suggests that the ride between today and the long- term happy ending is going to be more than a bit bumpy.

This week’s letter is going to be a passionate summary of my answer. In form, it will be something like a conversation between you and me, sitting in your living room or mine, or in a restaurant, maybe sipping an adult beverage, thinking through the future together, and wondering at how the world is transforming in front of our eyes. In part, the impetus for this letter was a video I did with Patrick Cox last week, one in a four- part series that Patrick is doing called “Riding the Gray Tsunami.” We had a candid conversation about the future that lasted an hour, though our outstanding moderator and editor Jonathan Roth, one of our team members, will likely edit it to about 3. Patrick’s other guests will be Dr. Mike Roizen, the chief wellness officer at the Cleveland Clinic; Aubrey de Grey, the chief science officer of SENS Research Foundation and one of the true experts on longevity science; and finally, our friend Jim Mellon, self- made British billionaire and avid biotech investor. You can sign up to participate here. You really don’t want to miss this.

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Now let’s jump to the letter. The Fragmentation of Society. In the interest of brevity, let’s take it is a given that we’re going to see massive technological change in the next 2. In fact, we will see more change – and improvement – in the next 2. Think where we were 1. That much and more is going to happen in the next two decades. Global society really is going to transform that fast.

Let’s start with some good news. In 1. 82. 0 some 9. By 1. 99. 0 the figure was 3. Forty percent of those who remain impoverished live in just two countries, Nigeria and India, both of which are growing rapidly and will see their extreme poverty significantly decrease in the next 2.

Latest news, expert advice and information on money. Pensions, property and more. Apocalypse Now It is the height of the war in Vietnam, and U.S. Army Captain Willard is sent to carry out a dangerous mission into Cambodia to assassinate a renegade.

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There is research to show that, on a global basis, the poor are getting richer faster than any other group. However, if you look around the US or Europe, that is not the conclusion you come to. But Africa or Asia? Absolutely. Let’s be clear: The Industrial Age and free- market capitalism, for all of its bumps and warts, has lifted more people out of poverty and extended more lives than has any other single development.

The collapse of communism has been a great boon to humanity (even if it is still talked about favorably in Western universities). Because of where the emerging- market economies are in the development cycle, they have the potential for vast, rapid improvement in the lives of their people.

But most of my readers do not live in the emerging markets. We live in the developed markets; and here, some of the outcomes of the Age of Transformation will not be so comfortable. Let’s start with this chart (hat tip, Downtown Josh Brown). Obviously, the rig count in US oilfields is rising rapidly – no surprise there. But distressingly, the number of oilfield workers is continuing to fall. How can this be? There is an answer to that conundrum in the long article that is the source of this chart and others I’ll use later.

There is a new robotic machine called an Iron Roughneck that reduces the human labor required to connect pipe from a crew of 2. And those jobs were quite high- paying. Here’s a picture of this new robotic roughneck. Fifteen workers per site at well over $1.

Does that machine look like it cost more than a few million? I bet it amortizes pretty quickly, and that’s why it is being rapidly adopted. Now look back at the chart.

The amazing thing is that this transformation happened in two years; it didn’t take a generation or even half a generation. You were an oilfield worker with what you thought was potentially a lifetime of steady, well- paying – if dangerous, nasty, and dirty – work. And then BOOM! The jobs just simply disappeared.

Your on- the- job experience doesn’t translate to any other industries very easily, and now you and your family are on the skids. I could actually spend this entire letter talking about the amazing transformation of the oilfield. Oil production is now a technology business. Computers and artificial intelligence are used in abundance in the oilfield.

Future wells are going to be a magnitude more productive and less expensive. There are oilfield operators here in Dallas running around with pro formas, raising money, talking about how they can do very well at $4.

And with oil at $5. Just with fewer workers. From the report on the Iron Roughneck we get the following alarming quote. Note that the report is full of links to academic research.

While I don’t like the author’s conclusions, his work is at least well researched). A landmark 2. 01. John] even looked at the impact of just industrial robots on jobs from 1. During that 1. 4- year period of time, the number of industrial robots quadrupled and between 3. And as the authors [Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo] noted, “Interestingly, and perhaps surprisingly, we do not find positive and offsetting employment gains in any occupation or education groups.” In other words, the jobs were not replaced with new jobs.

It’s expected that our industrial robot workforce will quadruple again by 2. MIT research – John] to 7 robots per 1,0.

In Toledo and Detroit it’s already 9 robots per 1,0. Using Acemoglu’s and Restropo’s findings, that translates to a loss of up to 3.

Remember, we’re talking about industrial robots only, not all robots, and not any software, especially not AI. So what we can expect from all technology combined is undoubtedly larger than the above estimates.

Automation has been happening right under everyone’s noses, but people are only beginning to really talk about the potential future dangers of automation reducing the incomes of large percentages of the population. In the US, the most- cited estimate is the loss of half of all existing jobs by the early 2. You can find people who estimate that technology will eliminate as many as two billion jobs, while also creating a large number of jobs – but nowhere near as fast. I don’t buy those extreme estimates, as I think they amount to sensationalism, but if you want to predict 3. US by the middle of the 2. I’m not going to argue with you. How many jobs will be created?

We’ll get to that in a minute. Watch Meet The Robinsons Online (2017). The Future of Work.

People frequently talk about the loss of trucking and taxi jobs that will result from the automation of driving. Rethink. X, in a 7.

US will be Taa. S (transportation as a service) by 2. The good news is that the average family will save $5,6. Americans’ pockets. Think of all the time that will be freed for activities other than driving, not to mention the traffic jams that will be reduced. The authors believe that freeing time now spent commuting to work, plus faster transport times, will lead to an increase in GDP of between $5.

What is a Story?: Conflict - The Foundation of Storytelling. Click to tweet this article to your friends and followers! Storytelling is based on conflict. Without conflict there’s no drama. Drama is conflict. By no means is this a new definition but a confirmation of the very foundation of storytelling. What is needed is to understand the role conflict plays, and in the process of discovering what a story is, the goal is also to discover what conflict is.

Every novel, play, movie and TV show is based on conflict, regardless of genre. In comedies we laugh at conflict. Conflict requires resolution. When conflict causes stress it’s because a solution has yet to be found. Solutions are never one size fits all, unless you happen to subscribe to an overriding believe that, for instance, love conquers all. But, clearly not all characters create or overcome conflict in the same way.

How a character handles conflict–whether internal or external–is very much a part of what makes that character unique. Solutions are often choices based on circumstances, the nature of the conflict, and whose involved. We create conflict. It’s possible to debate whether conflict is natural or not.

It’s unlikely mother nature throws tsunamis and earthquakes at us as some form of punishment, as some believe. More so, it’s the human conflict that occurs as the result of natural disasters. We are ill- equipped to effectively deal with unforeseen disasters, some of which can reach catastrophic proportions.

Armegeddon deals with the threat of total global destruction as the result of an asteroid speeding towards the earth. War of the Worlds, on the other hand, captures the struggle we might face with creatures not from our own planet (and so many other Sci- Fi flix). Outbreak and Contagion battle the nightmare of a pandemic virus. We may not choose conflict, but we must choose how to deal with it, which takes us to the classic psychology underpinning of human behavior: fight or flight.

This, incidently, is a major pathway into understanding character development, i. Characters grow–the character arch–based on how they handle conflict (overcoming obstacles). In fiction–as in real life–the foundation of character is how people choose to overcome obstacles–how they handle conflict. Choice…is the operative word. We cheer for those who overcome adversity, whether it be an illness, an enemy or an inner demon. We can choose to feed the dark side–evil–or search for resolution that leads to peace–good vs. The very essence of Star Wars and the reason for its phenomenal popularity, is how it captures the very struggle of good vs.

Characters make choices. In fact, gurus like Sadhguru and other Buddhist visionaries, reveal that life–suffering vs. Unless it’s pathologic, even depression is considered a choice. It’s a way to get attention. How true it is that our emotional states are a result of choice is another driver in how we tell stories. Often we react unwittingly, but we choose to respond.

Audiences do not choose to root for the bad guy. It goes against our very nature–our sense of right and wrong–the foundation of civilization. If we want the bad guy to win, we’ve chosen lawlessness as a basis for survival. If evil is OK, it destroys our sense of what is good. It destroys the basis for our religion; our spirituality. But when we do root for a bad guy, we’re rooting for a guy whose made badchoices. Actors understand the secret to bad guy roles is understanding that bad people often don’t see themselves as bad.

From the Godfather to Scarface, bad people act out of the instinct for survival–self- preservation. When they do see the bad in themselves, the result is guilt and shame or downright evil.

Humans are the only species on the planet that derive pleasure from hurting others. Yet, this is hardly something we applaud. And, it goes against the grain to say hurting others is a part of human nature. More so, it goes against human nature…on the basis, of course, you believe it is human nature to not just want to survive, but also do good and love one another. We tense up when conflict is unresolved.

Stress is the result of unresolved conflict–and very much the stuff of Act 2 in a traditionally structured screenplay. Act 1 introduces the conflict with Act 3 the resolve.

We sigh relief or rejoice when we overcome it. We have…a happy ending. Every decision and choice we make arises from conflict.

And in turn, every conflict is the result of the choices and decisions we make. The choice or decision we make is the solution, which invariably creates new conflict. According to an old belief, out of the primordial soup, life is nothing more than the survival of the fittest. Everything and everyone is competing for their claim to limited resources. In the world of memetics, it’s called the “selfish gene.” Does the World consist of limited resources or is the Universe abundant? Many believe competition isa natural force in life.

But is it? Are we really a world divided by winners and losers? Haves and Have- nots? The quest for truth may be illusive, but one thing’s for sure, such rhetorical questions are the stuff of storytelling. In a world based on sharing, no one’s needs go unmet. When someone loses, we all lose. But, we don’t live in a world based on sharing. Wait! Lot’s of people share.

Perhaps not enough. Consequently, greed and selfishness are major drivers of conflict. Sharing is a solution to conflict. There is Inner Conflict and Outer Conflict.

We are in constant conflict with ourselves. We are in constant conflict with others. We are in conflict with our immediate surroundings. And we are in a constant state of Global Conflict. The term “Conflict” is often used in place of War. Yet, within this world of conflict, we somehow manage to find some semblence of inner peace.

We find ways to get along. So conflict does not exist in a vacuum.

Is it true, as some believe, that External Conflicts, outside of naturally occuring ones, are the manifestations of our Inner Conflicts? War, crime, poverty and even disease is the result of our inability to resolve our own inner conflicts, whatever they may be? Watch A Good Marriage Online Fandango.

Some even believe thunder, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, stars colliding and black holes are somehow the result of combined negative human energy output. That is, negative energy generates conflict manifested in natural occuring events. Is natural disaster the wrath of God?

But Mother Nature doesn’t swallow up an island because she hated the island. The lion doesn’t kill the antelope because of something the antelope did or said. Do we really suffer today because of something we did in a past life?

Such a thought is the stuff of madness. Change produces conflict and conflict produces change. A storytelling device–or strategy–is to first create chaos, out of which comes order. Conflict arises from causing unbalance in an ordered state: a crime, an attack, the onslaught of illness. The classic Greek mythical tale of a Phoenix rising is quite dramatic–something new is born out of destruction or chaos. A phoenix depicted in a book of mythological creatures by F.

J. Bertuch (1. 74. Is art born from conflict? Is pain or suffering the underlying defining mechanism of conflict? One God, God is a man, many Gods, the Christian God, the Islamic God: it’s a belief system.

Clearly, not everyone’s beliefs are the same…and that produces conflict. Beliefs are not truths. They are illusions. Yet, people will kill in the name of their beliefs. If there is a God, what obstacles did God have to overcome to create the Universe? Or did “he” just snap his/her fingers?

And where WAS he, before he created the Universe? In other words, the belief in God–or a God–is a major source of conflict.

Trying to answer those questions is the very thing that pits sciene against faith…and we have conflict. We have the basis for a story. But, even though babies come into the world crying, whatever conflict they face comes from the outside, not the inside.